Select a scenario
A
Contained
Iran resolves mid-2026. Hormuz reopens. Oil falls below $90.
B
Prolonged
War drags into late 2026. Oil holds $110–130. RBA hikes 1–3 more times (4.35%–4.85%).
C
Escalation
Hormuz blocked. Oil $150+. RBA faces stagflation. Recession risk rises.
How to read this tool: The scenarios in this tool are built using historical pattern logic, mapping how Australian property has responded to similar conditions across past conflicts, combined with current verified data. These are not forecasts. The ranges shown indicate potential direction, not precision. Think of them as a compass, not a GPS.

Not financial advice. All scenario estimates are illustrative of historical patterns only. Price movement ranges are averages across Australian capital city markets and major property types. Individual markets, suburbs, and property types will vary significantly. Price ranges shown are nominal and not inflation-adjusted. RBA rate data current as of March 2026; next RBA decision May 5, 2026. March quarter CPI releasing April 29, 2026. Produced by Pizza & Property Podcast for educational and research purposes only. Always seek independent financial advice before making property decisions.